WEEK 10 COMPUTER PROJECTIONS
Our weekly computer projections include the most up-to-date strength rating for every FBS team, and a point value for home field advantage (using Phil Steele's home field edge metric for games played on campus, with no advantage for neutral site games).
Compare our projected line to the Vegas Insider point spread (As of Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2018 - 10:00 AM Eastern).
Note: We’ve made two changes beginning in Week 7. For the first six weeks of the season, projected point spreads were made using the difference in strength ratings, multiplied by 2.5, and adjusting for home field advantage. We’ve since adjusted the multiplier slightly to 2.0, but everything else is the same in our formula.
Because the formula is applied the same to every matchup in the same way, some values are presented as positive numbers while others are presented as negative numbers. When using this table, ignore the positives and negatives and focus instead on the team we highlight as the favorite and the point value.
For example, based on our preseason strength power ratings, Hawai'i (74.43) was an underdog in its opening season matchup at Colorado State (79.69). We calculated our point spread by taking the difference of the two ratings (74.43 - 79.69 = -5.26), and multiplied that figure by 2.5 (5.26 x 2.5 = -13.15), and then adjusted that figure by the 3.75-point home field advantage the Rams enjoy in Fort Collins (-13.15 + 3.75 = -16.9). We projected CSU as a 16.9-point favorite, and the final Vegas Insider line was 17.5. Under the new formula (with the 2.0 multiplier), Colorado State would have been a 14.27-point favorite.
Secondly, our preseason game-by-game projections have been available on the site all season, but for ease of reference, we've added them to our weekly projection post as well. The preseason projections are listed in the far right column so you can ignore them, use them as a simple FYI, or use them as another data point when analyzing a matchup.